TCU’s demolishing victory over Texas kicked off the big college football weekend last Thursday night. Does that place them right back into the College Football Playoff after being knocked out by the SEC?
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First up, let’s look at the top four. Here’s what we believe the committee will have in their top four on Tuesday night:
- Florida State
Here’s who should be in the top four:
- Florida State
Basically, there won’t be any surprises unless the committee thinks that Baylor and TCU can be judged head-to-head together, which they can’t just yet. After TCU throttled a much-improved Texas team down the stretch and Baylor struggled against a bad Texas Tech team, they’re even further separated from each other than a week before, and Ohio State was already between them.
I understand why Baylor fans are really angry about this, and there are other national sports writers on this side. Like previous predictions and conversations about who’s in the top four: It’s based on what has happened this season, not what I think will happen. What TCU benefits from is playing all the tough opponents in the Big 12 so far, and when they were still ranked. The Bears are 2-0 this season against top 25 teams; the Horned Frogs are 4-1. There’s also the nonconference win over Minnesota, who is better than all three of Baylor’s nonconference opponents combined.
That may all change next week if TCU struggles against Iowa State and Baylor defeats Kansas State. The Bears beating the Wildcats would be a huge victory on their resume, and if they dominate, it would be hard for me to even keep Baylor under TCU at that point. But it has to happen first.
To please Baylor fans, here’s a top four based on what I think will happen next season. Right now, I think Baylor will beat Kansas State, Alabama will beat Missouri, Oregon will beat Arizona, Ohio State won’t beat Wisconsin, and Florida State won’t beat Georgia Tech. So, here’s who I have as of right now in the real final four:
That should please TCU fans, Baylor fans, and everybody in the Big 12, even though they may not want to know my dream matchup from those seeding pairs.