Despite getting a big victory over West Virginia on Saturday, the Iowa State basketball team still open up as underdogs in Waco.
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The Cyclones are 2.5-point underdogs against the Baylor Bears for Wednesday night’s top-25 tilt. A couple of offshore sportsbooks (Top Bet and BetOnline.ag) have opened up with the number a few hours ago and have held steady early.
It’s not a surprise to see Iowa State open as underdogs considering how tough Baylor. It’s been hard for the Cyclones to win in Waco and the Bears’ defense is bruising.
Baylor allows just 56.3 points per game, which is second-best in the Big 12 and just a shade below TCU (55.9). The Bears allow the lowest 3-point shooting percentage in the conference (.272).
I’d expect the line to get closer to even. Picking up Iowa State and the points is attractive despite the venue. However, Baylor will likely continue being a favorite.
Iowa State is 4-0 at the spread in their last four road games against a team with a winning record. They’re also 5-1 ATS in their last six Big 12 games. In the same vein, Baylor is just 5-14 ATS in their last 19 home games against a team with over a .600 winning percentage.
Head to head, the favorite is 6-1 ATS, Iowa State is 5-1 ATS, and the home team is 13-3 ATS.
While the under is trending, Vegas may be setting it really low when it’s released. Iowa State’s total has been under in their last three games. The total should be exceptionally low, meaning it may not be a bad idea to push the button on the over.