The opening line hasn’t moved much since opening as a 12 or 12.5 favorite for Texas over Iowa State this Saturday.
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Most Vegas and offshore sportsbooks debuted the game with the Cyclones as double-digit road dogs — either by 12 or 12.5 points. It’s gone down slightly with some books knocking off the hook, but now some places on Saturday morning are knocking the line down to 11.5.
The public is clearly on Iowa State to cover.
Total points opened up at 46 at most places, but has significantly dropped because everybody believes Texas will do the job again. Some offshore sportsbooks have significantly jumped, going down from 46 to 43, but then going back up to 45.
Here’s why that’s the case.
The smarter move based on trends is to take the points Iowa State is receiving if you’re in Vegas.
- Iowa State is 5-1 ATS in last six games against a losing team (7-3 in last 10 road games against a losing team).
- Texas is 2-5 ATS in last six games against a losing team.
- Texas is 1-5 ATS in last six games after an ATS win.
- Over is 4-1 in Iowa State’s last five games after a victory.
- Over is 4-1-1 in Iowa State’s last six games in October.
- Under is 5-1 in Texas’ last six losses and Big 12 games.
- Under is 8-2 in Texas’ last 10 games overall.
- The road team is 6-2 ATS in the last eight matchups between these teams.
- The under is 4-0 in the last four matchups between these teams.
What the bettors say
It’s a very close race on the public line. Iowa State edges it out with 54 percent of the public going with them. The Covers experts agree with the public, 10-3. Right now, the line currently sits at -11.5 in favor of Texas.
62 percent of the public is on the over of the point total, which currently sits at 44.5. The experts are dead even at 4-4.
While we predict that Texas will win by 14 points, the smarter move based on trends is to take the points Iowa State is receiving if you’re in Vegas. For total points, we’d recommend to go over even though the Longhorns pass defense is outstanding. However, if you can’t find it under 45, it’d probably be best to stay away from the total.