Iowa State’s actually favored in a game! For just the second time this year, the Cyclones will have a spread in their favor despite the number dwindling throughout the week.
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Even more interesting, this was the only game the Cyclones opened as favorites. They didn’t open up as favorites against North Dakota State, but those lines aren’t Vegas official because they don’t create lines for FBS vs. FCS matchups.
Many offshore sportsbooks and one place in Vegas opened with the Cyclones as high as a 6.5-point favorite. Well, the public pounded on the points with Toledo, and that quickly dwindled to as low as 2.5 points on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Some Vegas casinos still have the line available at two and the hook, but if you shop around, you’ll mostly find the line at three. As of now, both the public and experts are high on that number.
The point total can be found anywhere from 61 to 62 points, which is a fair total unless Iowa State really takes advantage of the Toledo defense.
- Toledo is 4-1 ATS in last five Big 12 games.
- Toledo is 1-4 ATS in last five road games and games overall.
- Iowa State is 3-8-2 ATS in last 13 games against team with a winning record.
- Over is 4-0 in Toledo’s last four non-conference games.
- Over is 4-1 in Toledo’s last five Big 12 games.
- Under is 9-2 in Toledo’s last 11 road games.
- Under is 5-2 in Iowa State’s last seven non-conference games.
What the bettors say
Both the public and expert bettors are hitting hard on Iowa State. 71 percent of the public says the Cyclones with the 3-point line. Experts vote at near the same percentage, 7-to-3.
The public is leaning on the over at 53 percent, but the experts easily agree on under 61, 6-to-2.