Baylor started out this week as three touchdown favorites, and that spread didn’t move much throughout the week as they remain 21-point favorites over Iowa State.
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Some offshore sportsbooks bumped Baylor to a 22-point favorite, but all the Vegas sportsbooks started out with a 21.5 point spread and have knocked off the half point. Covers.com currently shows that the public is 60 percent in favor of the Bears.
Vegas sportsbooks opened up the point total at 69 points, which is right on the money with our prediction of Baylor winning 38-30.
- Baylor is 5-0 ATS in their last five September games.
- Baylor is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 games overall.
- Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in their last five Big 12 games, and five games overall.
- Iowa State is 10-28 ATS in their last 38 games after finishing with less than 100 rushing yards in the last game (had 82 against Iowa).
- Over is 4-1-1 in Baylor’s last six games after a BYE week.
- Over is 7-2 in Iowa State’s last nine games after a BYE week.
- Over is 11-5-1 in Baylor’s last 17 road games.
- Under is 23-11 in Iowa State’s last 34 home games.
- Favorite in this series is 5-0 ATS in the last five games.
- Home team in this series is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 games.
- Under in this series is 4-1-1 in the last six games.
- Baylor is 1-4 ATS in last five games in Ames.
This is a classic stay away game for those bettors in Vegas. Based off trends, the smarter pick is taking the points given to the Cyclones and choosing the under — we’d definitely recommend that if you had to bet on this game.
That being said, Baylor could easily come into Ames and win by over three touchdowns with how strong their defense is. And Iowa State’s defense looks good, but it hasn’t been tested by this kind of a passing attack just yet.
On paper, the Cyclones are due to be blown out in this game. But there’s so many things that could contribute to a struggle for Baylor.
While the public is in favor of Baylor, Covers.com’s expert picks are well in favor for Iowa State to win ATS, 7-2 (78 percent). The public is banging on the over at 70 percent and the experts agree, 5-3 (63 percent).