Iowa State will be a huge home underdog to Baylor, approximately sitting as a three touchdown spread on Monday morning.
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Bettors are already hitting on Iowa State as the line as moved from it’s opening 22.5-point line to 21.5. The line could move down, but not by much. Because of the absolute shellacking the Cyclones received in Waco last year, many people expect a similar result this year even in Jack Trice Stadium.
Based on the public betting at Covers, 59 percent of the public is hitting on Baylor with the 21.5-point spread.
This line sounds about right. Baylor has four wide receivers suffering from injuries, but three of them are expected to be back (Levi Norwood is expected to be back next week). Along with quarterback Bryce Petty, the team is already a bit banged up three weeks into the season and it’s noted from last season that the high-flying raid isn’t as powerful on the road as it is in Waco.
Neither is the defense. In the six games away from home (four true road games, two neutral sites), they gave up 35.3 points on the road. That average is actually anchored thanks to the team playing Kansas on the road (held them to 14 points). They couldn’t keep Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, TCU, or UCF under 34 points. Their two losses happened against the Cowboys and Knights.
While Iowa State’s defense won’t be holding Baylor down, with this large of a spread between the teams, there’s a chance that the Cyclones could have a backdoor cover late in the game.