Iowa State men’s basketball: What are the Cyclones’ odds in NCAA tournament?


Nate Silver of FiveThiryEight fame have released the win chance percentages for all the teams in the NCAA tournament. Despite not having a good chance, Iowa State is one of the teams that could win the national championship.

Mar 15, 2014; Kansas City, MO, USA; The Iowa State Cyclones players celebrate after their game against the Baylor Bears in the championship game of the Big 12 Conference college basketball tournament at Sprint Center. The Cyclones won 74 – 65. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

Here are Silver’s chances on Iowa State advancing to the following round in the NCAA tournament from his blog (reminder, for those that can’t see the chart, any ad-blocking extensions must be disable).

  • Second round: Already in
  • Third round: 81 percent
  • Sweet 16: 46 percent
  • Elite Eight: 20 percent
  • Final Four: eight percent
  • Championship game: three percent
  • Winning it all: one percent

One percent’s pretty small when it comes to winning it all, but Iowa State is just one of 18 teams that actually records over one percent when it comes to a national championship. Everyone else is under one percent.

In comparison, UCLA, Syracuse, and Oklahoma State also hold just one percent. That’s pretty good company to be in.

Louisville is the favorite to repeat, holding a title percentage of 15 percent. Florida is at 14 percent, Arizona is at 13 percent, and then the next best school is Kansas, who sits at six percent.

Outside of the Jayhawks, Cyclones, and Cowboys, no other Big 12 team is expected to hold the trophy, according to Silver. I think Baylor got a little shortchanged. Their zone defense, similar to Syracuse, allows them to make things tough for other offenses and gives them an advantage in quick turnarounds.