TCU vs Iowa State men’s basketball: Game preview and prediction

TCU (9-12, 0-9) has had a rough life since joining the Big 12. They’ve lost 25 of their first 27 games in conference action, and it doesn’t look like it’s going to improve anytime soon. Playing in Ames against Iowa State (17-4, 5-4) is certainly not a place to remedy the problem.

Jan 22, 2014; Norman, OK, USA; TCU Horned Frogs guard Kyan Anderson (5) drives the ball while being defended by Oklahoma Sooners forward Tyler Neal (15) and forward D.J. Bennett (31) during the first half at Lloyd Noble Center. Mandatory Credit: Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

TCU Horned Frogs vs (16)Iowa State Cyclones

James H. Hilton Coliseum | Ames, Iowa
Date: Saturday, February 8th, 2014
Time: 3:00 PM CT | TV: Big 12 Network (affiliate list)

Last year, the Horned Frogs lost by over 30 points and it might be even tougher this time around. The Cyclones match a league-best 10-1 home record (with Kansas), and that lone loss came against the Jayhawks which could have been a different story if shots fell for the home team.

Speaking of teams struggling to shoot, that’s exactly what’s wrong with TCU. The Horned Frogs rank 312th nationally in points per game (65) on 41.1 percent field goal shooting. They’ve been able to muck things up enough to cause issues; Texas Tech couldn’t get more than 60 points in either contest and Texas just scored 59, but all three of those were TCU losses. This team can barely reach 60 points in Big 12 play, and that’s not even close to good enough in this conference to compete.

Feb 3, 2014; Stillwater, OK, USA; Iowa State Cyclones forward Georges Niang (31) drives to the basket against the Oklahoma State Cowboys at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Series notes

Believe it or not, Iowa State trails in the all-time series against TCU, 5-3. However, the Cyclones swept them easily last year and defeated them in Hilton Coliseum by 34 points. The Horned Frogs were unable to score more than 53 points in either outing.

What to watch for

Two things that have caused problems for Iowa State on defense is opponent offensive rebounding, total rebounding, and 3-point shooting. Absolutely none of those come into play for TCU. The Horned Frogs have 182 total offensive rebounds, average 31.6 rebounds per game, and are 102-of-314 from 3-point range. All of that (including 3-point makes and attempts) is ranked dead last in the Big 12.

The biggest threat on the offensive boards is TCU freshman center Karviar Shepherd. He leads the team with 143 total rebounds and 33 offensive rebounds, but he’s committed the most turnovers (57) and has fouled out of the game three times this season.

From 3-point range, the biggest threats will be Horned Frogs junior guard Kyan Anderson and freshman forward Brandon Parrish. Both average around 38 percent from the perimeter; Anderson is 26-of-70 while Parrish is 30-of-79. Anderson’s experience and gotten him to the free throw line 122 times, and shoots 83.6 percent from the charity stripe.

[Also see: TCU-ISU 3 players to watch]

Prediction

There’s no reason to sugarcoat this. TCU is an awful team that’s completely outmatched in nearly every category. Iowa State averages 20.1 more points, 6.6 more rebounds, and 6.1 more assists per game. They also average 5.8 percent better from the field. There’s Anderson for TCU, but there’s DeAndre Kane, Georges Niang, Melvin Ejim, and a whole lot more that’s a bigger challenge for the opponent on defense.

The Horned Frogs do have the size to disrupt the Cyclones, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to anyone if Iowa State came out slow and hungover from their huge victory over Oklahoma State. Well, let’s be honest, nearly every game has resulted in a slow start for the Cyclones. Eventually, the blowout will happen, and if for some reason it doesn’t, Texas showed all of us that a team can miss 40 field goals and still beat TCU.

IAST 82, TCU 51 (Odds: IAST -19)