Big 12 football picks: Week eleven predictions

It’s an important slate of games this week in the Big 12, headlined by a game that will impact the national championship race.

Nov 10, 2012; Norman, OK, USA; Baylor Bears running back Glasco Martin (8) is tackled by Oklahoma Sooners linebacker Frank Shannon (20) in the second half at Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. The Sooners won 42 – 34. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

(10)Oklahoma (7-1) at (6)Baylor (7-0) – Thursday, 6:30 PM CT (TV: FOX Sports 1)

Finally, the big test for Baylor that everyone’s been waiting to see. A grinder of a five-game home stretch begins with a team that the Bears have only beaten once in the previous 22 attempts. The only time Bryce Petty and his team has looked pedestrian was against a very solid defense on the road against Kansas State, and even then they were held to 35 points. Much more importantly, the team’s running attack has been unstoppable.

Baylor ranks eighth nationally with 300 rushing yards per game, and that has to balance out with the best passing attack that averages 417.3 yards in the air per game! It’s an offense that can’t be stopped. While the Sooners have the defense to slow down Petty and he may not have great numbers, there’s no way they’ll stop Lance Seastrunk, Shock Linwood, and others when they gave up 169-plus rushing yards against West Virginia, Notre Dame, Texas, and Kansas – basically, all the teams they faced that had a pulse in the running attack.

The Bears shock the nation with both a dominant victory against Oklahoma in Waco and having the tarp off for it. BAY 52, OKLA 30 (Odds: BAY -16.5, O73)

Kansas State (4-4) at (25)Texas Tech (7-2) – Saturday, 11:00 AM CT (TV: ABC)

As much of a juggernaut the air raid attack is for the Red Raiders, coughing up the ball three times in two of the biggest games of the season has put the team in a two-game slump. Not only is it a long shot to get back into the Big 12 race, but they’ll be facing the Wildcats who are on a two-game winning streak after finding a way to win their close losses. The good news is that KSU turns the ball over as well – both teams are at the bottom of the Big 12 in turnover margin.

Texas Tech won’t be able to pass as much on a better than average Big 12 passing defense that’s given up eight touchdowns and scored eight interceptions, but they’ll pull out a small victory in Lubbock. TTU 28, KS ST 25 (Odds: TTU -2.5, U59.5)

Kansas (2-6) at (14)Oklahoma State (7-1) – Saturday, 3:00 PM CT (TV: FOX Sports 1)

Things are back on track for the Cowboys after losing to West Virginia in the season opener. They’ve rattled off four straight victories to stay in the conference race and will take on a team that’s barely remembered the last time they’ve won a game in the conference. Clint Chelf has continued to improve since becoming the starting quarterback, and the Jayhawks will have a hard time dealing with emerging running back Desmond Roland, who’s seen the rock more and picked up over 300 yards in his last two games. OK ST 52, KAN 10 (Odds: OK ST -31, O53.5)

Texas (6-2) at West Virginia (4-5) – Saturday, 6:00 PM CT (TV: FOX)

Like Baylor, the Longhorns are the only other team that controls their destiny to win the conference title. The duo at running back, Johnathan Gray and Malcolm Brown, combine for nearly 1,100 yards and both have combined for 234 of the teams’ 612 total plays! As long as Case McCoy continues his steady dose of around 200 yards per game and Texas can continue to score, they’ll have a chance at West Virginia. But the Mountaineers have played very well at home all season, dropping just their first game against TCU last week. TEX  34, WVU 20 (Odds: TEX-6, U56)

Prediction of the TCU-Iowa State game will be available Friday night.