Iowa State Cyclones vs Texas Tech Red Raiders: Game preview and prediction

After finally grabbing the first win of the season, Iowa State (1-3, 0-1) suffered their first heartbreak of the season. A great game between the Cyclones and the Texas Longhorns was marred by a horrible call that sealed a one-point loss for the cardinal and gold.

Now that the team has improved a tremendous amount since August 31st, now begins how the Cyclones will respond as they hit the road. They face a two-game road trip that begins in Lubbock against a ranked Texas Tech (5-0, 2-0) squad that’s dealing with their own adversity at the quarterback position.

Iowa State Cyclones vs. (21)Texas Tech Red Raiders

Jones AT&T Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
Kickoff – Saturday, 11:00 AM CT | TV – FOX Sports 1 (broadcast info)

September 29, 2012; Ames, IA, USA; Iowa State Cyclones wide receiver Jarvis West (1) runs after a catch and avoids the tackle by Texas Tech Red Raiders defensive back Tre Porter (5) in the first half at Jack Trice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports

This is the first real road test for Iowa State, and Texas Tech head coach Kliff Kingsbury didn’t make it any easier on them by potentially starting any of their three quarterbacks on Saturday. Baker Mayfield suffered a knee injury in their win against Kansas but hasn’t been ruled out for the game. Reportedly, original projected starter Michael Brewer got in some reps in practice along with Davis Webb.

Webb has received some playing time this season, albeit most of the production happening during garbage time, but Brewer could easily be the starter if Mayfield isn’t able to go. Brewer has the most experience as a sophomore compared to the two freshmen.

The Cyclones actually match up well defensively, thanks in part to the Red Raiders’ 110th-ranked rushing offense. Their inability to produce on the ground will finally give the young defensive line a break, but the secondary will face their biggest test of the year with multiple weapons to throw to regardless of who’s under center.

Jace Amaro is a tight end that leads the team in yards, Eric Ward has been the leading receiver for two straight seasons, and Bradley Marquez has been very clutch on third downs this season.

If Iowa State wants to keep up in this game, they’ll have to do what they’ve been doing for the past two weeks: establish Aaron Wimberly on the ground and open up the passing game for Sam Richardson. The quarterback was incredibly efficient against Texas completing 16 of 27 passes for 262 yards and going .500 on third down.

Of course, that success all begins with the offensive line, and it’s been such an improvement over the past couple of weeks. The question is how much of that was improvement by the Cyclones or just their opponents with shoddy defenses?

We’ll find out in a few short hours.

What to watch for

Texas Tech is ranked 17th nationally in rushing defense but 80th in passing defense. If Iowa State is able to control the tempo and establish the run, there won’t be a need to throw it as much which is the reason why they played against the Longhorns so well. The Red Raiders will try to score early and force the Cyclones to pass, and if they’re successful, it will be a very long day for ISU.

Mayfield starting at quarterback would be worst-case scenario for Iowa State. His mobility separates him from the other quarterbacks, and without him, that leaves Texas Tech with next to no running game.

Prediction

Iowa State has continued to answer the bell when playing ranked opponents early in Big 12 play on the road. Texas Tech is all too familiar with the Cyclones trouncing them two years ago at this very stadium. ISU was also able to take down TCU last year when the Horned Frogs were ranked and faced quarterback adversity.

There’s so many familiar storylines heading into this game that should make Cyclones fans comfortable and confident that a win could be had here. It’s a must win to have any hope for a bowl game this year.

With this being the first real road game for Iowa State, combined with a strong Red Raider defensive line that’s been stopping the run all season, I don’t believe the Cyclones will come out of Lubbock with a victory. All three quarterbacks for Texas Tech are well-equipped enough to run the air raid offense. Richardson will be forced to pass more which could cause multiple sacks and Wimberly will be held to well under 100 rushing yards.

Texas Tech will end up pulling away in the second half and will become bowl eligible while Iowa State will fall to 0-2 in Big 12 play.

TTU 35, ISU 20 (Odds: TTU -14, O55.5)