Iowa State Football: TCU Preview and Predictions

Iowa State at (13)Texas Christian

Saturday, October 6th – at Amon G. Carter Stadium; Fort Worth, Texas

Cyclones: 3-1, 0-1 Big 12 | Horned Frogs: 4-0, 1-0 Big 12

• Kickoff – 2:30 p.m. CT
• Television – FOX Sports Networks
• Radio – Cyclone Radio Network (affiliate list)
• Odds – TCU is favored by seven points and the total is set at 41 points (as of today from Covers.com)

September 29, 2012; Ames, IA, USA; Iowa State Cyclones player Jake Knott (20) tackles Texas Tech Red Raiders wide receiver Alex Torres (86) in the second half at Jack Trice Stadium. Texas Tech beat Iowa State 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-US PRESSWIRE

TV Information:

• Announcers: Mike Morgan (PxP), JC Pearson (commentary), Laura McKeeman (sideline)
• Coverage follows Boise State at Southern Miss at 2:30 p.m. CT

Radio Information:

• Announcers: John Walters (PxP), Eric Heft (commentary), Ben Bruns (sideline)
• Coverage begins two hours before kickoff.

About TCU:

• Iowa State is 0-3 historically against TCU.
• Head coach: Gary Patterson (113-30 overall record) – all 13 seasons as head coach with Horned Frogs.
• Will be first conference game they host as a member of the Big 12.

Quarterback Comparison:

ISU: Steele Jantz (#2, senior, JUCO transfer)

• Passing: 85-127 (66.9 percent), 804 yards, seven touchdowns, seven interceptions
• Rushing: 78 yards on 53 carries (leads team in carries), one touchdown, two fumbles lost
• Had four turnovers in Big 12 opener against Texas Tech
• Overall record as starter is 6-5; 6-0 in non-conference play, 0-5 in Big 12

TCU: Trevone Boykin (#2, freshman)

• Passing: 9-10 (90 percent), 74 yards, 1 touchdown, no interceptions
• Rushing: 12 carries, 122 yards, 1 touchdown
• Has ran 22 plays in three games for the Horned Frogs
• First game as starter

3 Keys to Victory for Iowa State:

• Last chance for Jantz. How much slack will Paul Rhoads give his starting quarterback? Some fans have already given up hope on the senior, others are generally calling for his final game today. Obviously, the turnovers will have to stop. The Cyclones have become more of a passing team than expected. Jantz needs to help the defense and take advantage of any opportunities they give him.
• Take advantage of TCU’s new quarterback. This is a freshman’s first start after Casey Pachall get suspended indefinitely with his DWI arrest. TCU also hosts their first game ever against a Big 12 opponent as a member of the conference. With so much pressure on the quarterback, along with a very young team around him, the Cyclones need to get to him and force mistakes.
• Set up the pass and create offensive balance. More information on TCU’s defense later, but they have stopped the run well all season long. Iowa State will likely be passing early again, but this team needs to establish the running game in order to win. If ISU gets held to under 100 yards rushing overall, they will likely not get the victory today.

September 29, 2012; Ames, IA, USA; Iowa State Cyclones quarterback Steele Jantz looks down field against the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the second half at Jack Trice Stadium. Texas Tech beat Iowa State 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Reese Strickland-US PRESSWIRE

Clones Confidential Links:

• Scouting TCU’s offense
• Former TCU starting QB Casey Pachall arrested with DWI

Defense and Special Teams Notes:

• Iowa State faced the overall best defense in the nation right now against Texas Tech. They will face the seventh best defense in the nation and second-best in the Big 12 today in TCU.
• TCU has held teams to 78 rushing yards a game, best in the Big 12. They are third best on passing defense.
• The Horned Frogs have held teams to an average of 7.3 points a game – again, best in Big 12
• Sophomore linebacker Joel Hasley has the most tackles on the team with 30 – four of them were for loss. He also has two sacks.
• Watch out for freshman defensive end Devonte Fields. He has 17 tackles, 8.5 tackles for loss with five sacks. He’s also forced a fumble.
• Punter: Ethan Perry, a freshman that averages 45 yards a punt. Last week, he suffered a botched snap and a turnover against SMU.
• Kicker: Another freshman, Jaden Oberkrom, has 22 kickoffs and only five touchbacks. One went out of bounds last week against SMU. He didn’t get a touchback in the games against Virginia or Kansas.
• Oberkrom has made 5-7 field goals and all 16 extra points.

Pregame Thoughts:

Last week was a heartbreaker for Iowa State fans. Nearly reaching the top 25 for the first time since 2005, and Texas Tech’s defense holds up and holds ISU to just 189 total yards – just 73 passing yards. That’s unacceptable regardless if the Red Raiders really had the best defense in the nation. They don’t, it’s obviously bloated by facing three high school teams, but equal blame needs to be given in the following three areas: the quarterback, the offensive line, and the gameplan. The Cyclones should not have started the game passing the ball that early, and on a drive when they ran the ball successfully, they completely abandoned passing the ball when they easily set themselves up for play action.

Hindsight is 20/20 of course, but I expect a full rebound today. TCU is an incredibly young team – special teams is run by freshmen, the new quarterback has his first start, and the Cyclones’ defense should be able to force the Horned Frogs into a lot of mistakes even on the road. Essentially, the have to. TCU’s defense is legit, and Jantz will probably be under pressure most of the game.

Prediction:

TCU 20, Iowa State 16

Brian Spaen is the lead editor for Clones Confidential. Keep up with the latest sports fails and disdain toward the Big Ten by following him on Twitter.

Read his other work on the Oregon Ducks blog, Autzen Zoo, and Lacrosse the Web.